The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has today published its greenhouse gas emission projections for the period 2025-2055.
- Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions could achieve a reduction of up to 25% by 2030, compared to a national target of 51%, with full implementation of a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors.
- Ireland will be close to meeting the first carbon budget, but nearly all sectors are on track to exceed their sectoral emissions ceilings for the second carbon budget by 2030.
- Ireland is projected to exceed its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of 42% reduction by 2030. EPA projects a maximum reduction of 23%.
- With less than four years left to 2030, there must be a strong focus on implementation of policies and measures to meet climate targets which will deliver wide-ranging benefits from environmental protection, supporting public health and wellbeing and reducing Ireland’s dependence on fossil fuels.
EPA analysis shows that Ireland’s planned climate policies and measures could deliver reductions of up to 25% of emissions by 2030, compared to 2018 levels. Assessment of the latest information provided by Governmental bodies and sector representatives indicates that the gap to target is widening in some sectors of the economy, while narrowing in others.
Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be close to meeting the first Carbon Budget (2021-2025) of 295 Mt CO2eq. The second budget is projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of 53 to 82 Mt CO2eq.
Transport, Industry and the Buildings (Commercial and Public) sectors are projected to be the furthest from achieving their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030. Agriculture emissions are projected to reduce by up to 19%.
Dr Eimear Cotter, EPA Director General, said: “The EPA’s projections show that the current rate of delivery of the Climate Action Plan and associated policies could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2030 – only half of the reductions needed. While greenhouse gas emissions are declining, European and national emission reduction targets are projected to be missed. There must be a renewed focus on delivering the actions to meet Ireland’s climate targets which will be a significant challenge given the short timeframe to 2030.”
Dr Cotter added: “Meeting these targets will deliver multiple benefits. These include reducing Ireland’s reliance on fossil fuels in electricity, transport and heating and strengthening national energy security and resilience. Achieving these emission reductions will also improve public health, provide green employment and protect our environment. Overall, these trends demonstrate that progress is achievable but accelerating delivery is critical. Renewable energy is now expected to provide nearly 60% of Ireland’s electricity by 2030. It is imperative given the increasing demand for electricity across several sectors, that renewables are delivered at the pace and scale required to meet this demand.”
Agriculture.
Depending on the level of implementation of measures outlined in Government policies and plans, total emissions from the Agriculture sector will decrease between 4% and 19% over the period of 2018 to 2030. Changes in nitrogen fertiliser usage, switching to different fertilisers and lower anticipated livestock numbers contribute to projected emissions savings. A direct comparison of the Agriculture sector against its absolute Sectoral Emission Ceiling is no longer possible given recent scientific updates to baseline historical agriculture emissions.
Transport.
Emissions from Transport are projected to reduce by up to 28% over the period 2018 to 2030, if the measures set out in plans and policies are implemented. These include at least 751,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030, increased biofuel blend rates and measures to support more sustainable transport.
Residential Emissions.
Emissions from fuel combustion for home and hot water heating are projected to decrease by up to 18% by 2030. Lower uptake of home energy improvement measures, including planned heat pump installation in existing dwellings, has lowered predictions for emissions savings by 2030.
Industry.
Fuel combustion in manufacturing is the primary source of emissions in this sector; emissions from mineral, chemical and metal industries contribute the next largest portion. Emissions from this sector are projected to reduce by 12% over the period 2018 to 2030.
Energy.
Continued rollout of renewable electricity generation to provide 52% – 59% of Ireland’s electricity by 2030 as well as increased importation of electricity from interconnectors, are contributing to reductions in Ireland’s emissions. However, delayed delivery of planned renewable energy projects such as offshore wind have lowered potential emissions savings by 2030.
Land use.
Emissions from this sector are projected to increase between 4% to 72% over the period of 2018 to 2030 as Irish forestry reaches harvesting age, and shifts from being a carbon sink to a source of emissions. Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase.
Commenting, Dr Conor Quinlan, Programme Manager said: “The shortfall to our 2030 targets is narrowing in some sectors, for example emissions in the Transport sector are now projected to reduce by up to 28%. Encouragingly, projections for electric vehicle uptake has improved, reflecting growing confidence in the transition to cleaner transport. In contrast, the gap is widening in others such as the Residential sector which is projected now to reduce by up to 18%. It is imperative that ambition and action is maintained across all sectors if we are to meet our targets and realise the benefits of decarbonisation for our society.”
For further detail on these figures, see the EPA report Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 2025 to 2055 and EPA Greenhouse Gas web resource on the EPA website.
Leave a Reply