Scientists are closely watching the developing 2026 – 27 El Niño, but what does that actually mean?
El Niño (Spanish for ‘the boy’) is a natural weather pattern that begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Normally, steady winds push warm surface water towards Asia and Australia. During an El Niño, those winds weaken, allowing unusually warm water to spread eastwards across the Pacific.
That might sound like a small change, but the Pacific Ocean is enormous. When its temperature and rainfall patterns shift, they can influence weather around the world.
According to the latest update from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño is already under way and is expected to become stronger towards the end of 2026. Scientists currently estimate a 97% chance that it will continue into early spring 2027. There is also a significant possibility that it could become a very strong event.
A strong El Niño can increase the chances of:
► Heavy rain and flooding in some places.
► Drought and extreme heat in others.
► Greater wildfire and crop-failure risks.
► Disruption to fishing, especially near South America.
► A temporary rise in average global temperatures.
Could El Niño affect Ireland?
Yes, but its influence on Ireland is usually indirect and much less predictable than in countries closer to the Pacific Ocean. Ireland’s weather is mainly controlled by the Atlantic Ocean, the jet stream and the North Atlantic Oscillation. El Niño can sometimes influence these systems, potentially increasing the chances of a colder, calmer and drier winter, but it does not guarantee this outcome. Met Éireann says there is currently no clear evidence that El Niño alone will cause unusually warm weather in Ireland, and it is still too early to say exactly how the 2026–27 event will affect us. The best approach is to follow Met Éireann’s seasonal forecasts as the event develops.
El Niño can also reduce Atlantic hurricane activity overall, although dangerous hurricanes can still occur.
This does not mean every country will experience extreme weather. El Niño changes the odds of certain weather conditions, but its effects vary depending on location, season and other climate patterns.
Scientists will continue watching ocean temperatures, winds, rainfall and atmospheric pressure to understand how powerful this El Niño may become and which areas could be most affected.
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