Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Projections Show Ireland Off Track for 2030 Climate Targets.
- Ireland is projected to achieve a reduction of up to 23 per cent in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to a National target of 51 per cent.
- To achieve a reduction of 23 per cent would require full implementation of a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors and for these to deliver the anticipated carbon savings.
- The first carbon budget and second carbon budget are projected to be exceeded with almost all sectors on a trajectory to exceed their national sectoral emissions ceilings for 2030.
- Ireland will not meet its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of 42 per cent reduction by 2030, instead a maximum reduction of 22% is projected.
- Total emissions from the Land Sector are projected to increase by up to 95% and Ireland is unlikely to meet our European commitments in this area.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has today published its greenhouse gas emissions projections for the period 2024-2055.
EPA analysis shows that planned climate policies and measures, if fully implemented, could deliver up to 23 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2018, down from the 29 per cent reduction projected last year. This widening gap to the emissions reduction target of 51 per cent in Ireland’s Climate Act is driven by updated information provided by Governmental bodies.
The first Carbon Budget (2021-2025) of 295 Mt CO2eq is now projected to be exceeded by between 8 to 12 Mt CO2eq. The second budget is now projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of 77 to 114 Mt CO2eq, including carryover from the first Carbon Budget.
Transport, Industry and the Buildings (Residential) sectors are projected to be the furthest from their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030, with emission reductions of up to 21%, 12% and 22% respectively. Agriculture emissions are projected to reduce by up to 16%. A direct comparison of the Agriculture sector against its Sectoral Emission Ceiling is no longer viable due to the impact of updated science underpinning the estimated agriculture greenhouse gas emissions.
Ms Laura Burke, Director General, EPA said: “The EPA’s projections show that full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 23 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Although emissions trends are going in the right direction, the gaps to our European and National emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year. This highlights the economy-wide effort needed to decarbonise our society and the focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation.”
Ms Burke added: “As we get closer to 2030 and receive more information on the impact of agreed policies and measures, it is concerning to see projected reductions and lack of progress in the delivery of actions to reduce emissions including in the electrification of our transport sector and the expansion of renewable electricity powering our homes and businesses and the implementation of carbon reduction measures in agriculture. Momentum is building for Ireland’s low carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition.”
Agriculture
Depending on the level of implementation of measures outlined in Climate Action Plans, AgClimatise and Teagasc MACC, total emissions from the Agriculture sector will range from a 1 per cent increase to a 16 per cent decrease over the period of 2018 to 2030. Savings are projected from a variety of measures including limits on nitrogen fertiliser usage, switching to different fertilisers and bovine feed additives.
Transport
Emissions from the sector are projected to reduce up to 21 per cent over the period 2018 to 2030 if the measures set out in plans and policies are implemented. These include over 640,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030, increased biofuel blend rates and measures to support more sustainable transport. Road freight is projected to be the biggest source of road transport greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
Residential Emissions
Emissions from the sector arise from fuel combustion for domestic space and hot water heating. These are projected to decrease by up to 22 per cent by 2030. Emission reduction measures in this sector include 571,000 domestic heat pumps are projected to be installed by 2030.
Industry
Fuel combustion in manufacturing is the primary source of emissions in this sector; process emissions from mineral, chemical, and metal industries contribute the next largest portion. Emissions from this sector are projected to reduce by 12 per cent over the period 2018 to 2030 with full implementation of measures including the accelerated uptake of carbon-neutral heating technologies for low and high temperature heating, and increased use of biomethane.
Energy
Driven by a reduction in fossil fuel usage and increased net importation of electricity from interconnectors, there was a marked drop of over 21 per cent in emissions from electricity generation between 2022 and 2023. In combination with planned increases in renewable energy generation from wind and solar, energy sector emissions are projected to reduce by up to 68 per cent (over the period 2018 to 2030) and are projected to achieve over 68 per cent renewable electricity generation by 2030.
Land use
Emissions from this sector are projected to increase between 39 per cent to 95 per cent over the period of 2018 to 2030 as our forestry reaches harvesting age and changes from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase.
Commenting, Ms Mary Frances Rochford, Programme Manager said: “The Agriculture sector has made some progress in reducing emissions through the successful rollout of actions on nitrogen fertilisers, low emission spreading technologies and national liming programmes. In parallel, in line with new research, the EPA refined the information underpinning the agricultural figures which has led to a reduction in the overall agriculture emission estimates. It is imperative that this new research and information is incorporated into updated carbon budgets and sectoral ceilings to ensure that they reflect latest science, data and knowledge on greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland and alignment with the national reduction target for the sector of 25%.”
For further detail on these figures, see the EPA report Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 2024 to 2055 and EPA Greenhouse Gas web resource on the EPA website.
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